Our research question for this semester is whether the theory helps explain the conflagration we now see in the region

Assignment Question

We studied the 1948, 1967, 1973 and 1982 Wars as well as the 1989 Intifada. Below is a description of the “mini-wars” that then came to characterize the Arab-Israeli conflict as it morphed into a series of miitary battles between Israeli’s IDF and Hamas in Gaza. We are using the Protracted Social Conflict (PSC) model to understand and study this phase. Our research question for this semester is whether the theory helps explain the conflagration we now see in the region. A description of the mini-wars: From: Assaf Orion, “The End of Israel’s Gaza Illusions,” Foreign Affairs (November 3, 2023) Thus, the Israeli government kept conflicts with Hamas limited in scope and generally fairly short. [Fairly frequently, flare-ups would arise that escalated to larger military conflicts, as was the case in 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021, 2022, and May 2023]. Each flare-up lasted between several days and a few weeks—the 2014 conflict lasted almost two months—and usually ended with some kind of cease-fire arrangement mediated by Egypt and combined with economic measures. This limited-conflict concept, combined with Israel’s tacit acceptance of Hamas rule in Gaza, also served Netanyahu’s goal of splitting the Palestinian system: by allowing Hamas to maintain control of the strip, Israel could weaken the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank and sidestep a political dialog with it. Prompt: Step 1 Theory: Use the assigned Azar article to summarize what he means by a protracted social conflict (PSC). This is to be a minimum of 1.5 double-spaced pages, that will include a description of key elements, including endogenous vs. exogenous conflicts, the notion of a “feud,” equilibrating forces, crises of war and peace, the normal relations range, and any others from the article that you wish to include. It is to be in synthesized paragraph for, not a list. *Note: this is to be in your own words. I am aware of various summary sources that you could use to bypass work and I will be checking this. Step 2: Find a minimum of 5 good sources** on the sequence of events in the October-November-to present (2023) burst of conflict. Address the issue of whether Azar’s PSC work can be said to have predicted the current state of affairs. This is to be a minimum of 3.5 double-spaced pages. Obviously, you need to establish the current state of affairs and make clear connections to PSC theory. Guidelines: Remember: This is neither an opinion piece nor a “who’s to blame for this” piece. This is a paper on how well a theory called PSC predicted what we now see unfolding. Wandering away from that will cost you dearly grade-wise. *=There are many conflict scholars who use the term ‘protracted conflict’ in their work. We’re not using their work. The sole source for your understanding of PSC for this paper is to be the assigned Azar article. **= The other sources that you are to find for this assignment are to help you sort out what is happening in Israel and the territory of Gaza (the current state of affairs from the prompt above). I should see a mixture of academic journal articles (if you do not know that means, visit a Kuhn Library Resource Librarian in-person or virtually), and authored articles from daily newspapers or weekly publications. I do not want online sources such as CNN.com or Time.com. Do better. The University of Oklahoma put together this excellent guide: https://guides.ou.edu/MENA/news ***= Use the APA style of in-text citation and reference page for this paper, include the Azar article. Here is a simple guide on how to use APA: https://www.nwtc.edu/NWTC/media/student-experience/Library/APA-Citation-Handout.pdf You will not find an analysis that applies Azar’s theory to current events for you. That is why this qualifies as original research. Work alone as you process the theory and its potential application to the events. (Note: the two guides above are from other university libraries. Obviously, you won’t be able to ask them for help, but you can ask for help at our Library)! Grading Rubric: Paper is well-written, edited and is the proper length with proper citation of sources. PSC Theory is properly described in student’s own words rather than just block quotations or others’ words, using the Azar article as the source Student is able to apply the theory to today’s events in Israel-Palestine, focusing ono definitional concepts in the article and utilizing good quality sources on the actual events that have (and are) transpiring. And, please remember: this is an IR paper, not an opinion piece.